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Mounting concerns are present regarding the potential of warfare involving East African neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive language has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his government's sea access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Relations between the both governments have often been tense. After a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

Five years later, a territorial conflict broke out in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the intention to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "rectified in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrea's Answer to the Threats

Despite persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to brief comments on social media from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a policy of reclaiming lost territory.

Government spokespeople warned on mid-September that moves to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed training completions of many recruits at various military training camps.

The head of staff section of the armed forces, General Hachalu, stated recently in an discussion that the military was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Past Roots of the Tension

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was governed by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the UK forces before turning into a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the ruler terminated this system and Eritrea became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year armed struggle ensued, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors remained at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two agreed to a statement that the war was finished – a move that earned Abiy the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet relations have later worsened anew.